sexta-feira, 18 de dezembro de 2015

Global Availability of Phosphorus and Its Implications for Global Food Supply: An Economic Overview

6 Conclusion
As far as this can be said today, agriculture will always be dependent on phosphorus inputs. And at least in foreseeable future it is very likely that the prime source of phos-phorus for agriculture will be mineral phosphate fertilisers and therefore, ultimately, phosphate rock. Although phosphate rock is a finite natural resource and contrary to recently published articles predicting a "peak phosphorus" event within this century, the currently available information shows no clear indications that phosphate rock deposits are facing depletion any soon. At the same time, the inherent uncertainty of such pre-dictions needs to be emphasised.

Furthermore, a close inspection of price trends and their determinants reveals that none of the past price peaks were triggered by physical phosphate rock scarcity but in-stead by a combination of demand increasing factors, long capacity expansion lead times and, possibly, by an oligopolistic market structure.

But even though mineral phosphate deposits might not run out in the near future, there can be no doubt about the finiteness of this resource. Given that phosphorus as a nutrient is not substitutable in agriculture the only alternative to the use of phosphate rock-based mineral fertilisers is using phosphate recyclates. In other words, unless the phosphorus cycle is closed, essentially through complete recycling, the supply of min-eral phosphate fertilisers is going to be finite. This is unlikely to be a problem within this 19

century, yet it remains a permanent threat in the long run. A fundamental question therefore is whether the market price mechanism will provide appropriate economic in-centives for phosphorus recycling early enough to prevent a peak phosphorus event and eventually a limited availability of this non-substitutable nutrient. A precautionary approach would surely include a strategy towards a more efficient use of phosphorus fertilisers and investment in recycling options.

Meanwhile, physical abundance of phosphate rock alone may not be enough to en-sure a safe and stable economic supply. On the one hand, this relates to the highly skewed distribution of global phosphate rock production and reserves which may lead to a further increasing dependency of phosphate importing regions and nations on only a handful of producing countries, such as China, Morocco and Russia. On the other hand, increasingly volatile phosphate rock and fertiliser prices can pose a risk, espe-cially to farmers in developing and emerging nations. In contrast to developed coun-tries, the soils in developing regions are often phosphorus-deficient and therefore quite responsive to fertiliser application. Consequently, a price shock that renders phosphate fertiliser unaffordable can be assumed to have more severe effects on agricultural yields in tropical countries than in the industrialised countries of the North with phos-phorus saturated soils.

In that sense, and although the "peak phosphorus" debate cannot be expected to provide a reliable depletion or peak estimate, it surely helped raise public, political and scientific awareness of a formerly barely noticed topic. As a result, inter- and transdis-ciplinary research networks and initiatives such as Global TraPs, the European Phos-phate Platform and GPRI have been founded and the European Commission aims at publishing a Green Paper on the topic (ENEP 2013; EPP 2013; GPRI 2011; Scholz et al. 2013a).



 

by Markus Heckenmüller, Daiju Narita, Gernot Klepper

The World’s Biggest Phosphate Rock Producers, 2012 (Share in World Production)

OCP (Morocco)   13.3%

The Mosaic Company (USA)   6.5%

Yuntianhua Group (China)  3.9%

OJSC PhosAgro (Russia)   3.7%

PCS (PotashCorp) (Canada)   3.5%

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Jordan)  3.1%

CPG (Tunisia)   2.9%

Vale S.A. (Brazil)   2.2%

ICL (Israel)   1.7%
 

 
 
Source: Based on Dennis (2013) and ICL (2013). 











 

Anglo Said to Weigh $1 Billion Niobium, Phosphate-Unit Sale

Anglo American Plc is considering selling its niobium and phosphate business in Brazil in a deal that may fetch about $1 billion for the London-listed miner, said people familiar with the matter.
Anglo is working with advisers on a possible sale of the business, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. A formal sale process hasn’t started and the company may still keep the operations, according to the people. Anglo has received expressions of interest but no formal offer, one person said.
The mining company is seeking to raise $3 billion by selling assets and is cutting jobs to trim costs and cut debt amid a collapse in commodity prices. It has already raised about $2 billion this year by offloading its tarmac business, two copper mines in Chile and platinum assets in South Africa. Anglo said in July that it had net debt of $11.9 billion, with a long-term borrowing target of $10 billion to $12 billion.
Anglo closed 2.2 percent higher at 609.9 pence in London. The stock is down 49 percent this year. A spokesman for the producer declined to comment.
China’s slowdown and cooling demand for metals and minerals has undermined Chief Executive Officer Mark Cutifani’s efforts to turn around the fortunes of a business that mines platinum and diamonds in Africa and iron ore in Brazil.
Anglo says it’s among the world’s three biggest producers of niobium. Its business for that material, used to make steel, produced 2,934 metric tons in the first half and contributed $35 million to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Its phosphates unit had output of 513,000 tons with Ebitda of $52 million.
In late 2013, Anglo combined the management of its nickel, niobium and phosphates operations under a sole division, naming Ruben Fernandes as CEO of the business and relocating its offices to Belo Horizonte, in the Brazilian southeastern state of Minas Gerais, from Sao Paulo.
The London-based mining company is set to become the world’s second-largest producer of niobium, used in high-temperature alloys for jet engines and in lightweight steel for cars, when it completes the ramp up of its $325 million Boa Vista Fresh Rock plant in Brazil’s Goias state by mid-2016.
Cia. Brasileira de Metalurgia & Mineracao, controlled by the billionaire Moreira Salles family, dominates the supply of niobium after starting operations in 1961. CBMM, as the Araxa, Brazil-based company is known, sold a 30 percent stake to a group of Asian steelmakers in two transactions worth $3.9 billion in 2011.

segunda-feira, 14 de dezembro de 2015

ICL Signs MOU to Establish Phosphate Operation in Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ICL TEL AVIV, Israel, December 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --
Joint venture with Leviev Group would build a large-scale maritime mining and phosphate downstream manufacturing business  
ICL aims to secure competitively-priced phosphate deposits for future decades to strengthen its global specialty phosphates business 
JV is another step in ICL's strategy to diversify its sources of phosphate raw materials in order to build its specialty phosphate business in the Americas and Africa 
Follows ICL's recent strategic steps, including the formation of a phosphate JV with China's leading phosphate company Yunnan Yuntianhua (YTH) 
 
This could be the first commercial maritime exploration of phosphate in the world.
This phosphate should be high in chlorides and organics, eventually "similar" the peruvian Bayóvar phosphate nowadays being used to produce phosphoric acid in Brazil (Cubatão), México (Coatzacoalcos) and US (Uncle Sam).